太陽熱発電所の日射量予測を対象としたカーネルに基づくクリギングモデル

N. Yuda, A.D. Carnerero

Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is essential for the effective control of solar thermal power plants. In this study, we perform one-step-ahead irradiance prediction using Kriging models, which provide a flexible framework for modeling. The proposed method is an extension of the least-squares approach, incorporating kernel functions to handle complex structures. In addition, we develop a model that utilizes real-time measurement data. Numerical experiments in two scenarios demonstrate that our proposed method achieve high-accuracy short-term irradiance forecasts.